The Fundamentals part 3 - What to do to reliably hit your target

This article is going to cover when too boost and when not too boost, how to counter high defense models and over all statistical information to on what you need to hit. This is based off of my normal practices and would love to hear any counter arguments! Please post if you have any.

Lets start this off with a true evaluation of the statistical information. The following is going to a be a wall of numbers, please skip it if you just want my conclusions. This is for the people who want to follow the process or come up with their own conclusions. If you are skipping it drop down until you hit the END OF NUMBERS section.

Base Statistics Averages:

1D6 = 3.5

2d6 = 7

3d6 = 10.5 (when rolling in a game I base most of my assumptions on 10 aiming high is usually a bad idea)

4d6 = 14

5d6 = 17.5

Base Statistics with +2 effect averages:

1d6 = 5.5

2d6 = 9

3d6 = 12.5

4d6 = 16

5d6 = 19.5

Base Statistics with Manifest Destiny/Sign and Portents/Pin Cushion averages:

1d6 = 4.47

2d6 = 8.45

3d6 = 12.24

4d6 = 15.93

5d6 = 19.56

Anyone who puts much effort into seeing stats can get roughly close to these numbers. Now lets put this into a % format.

The # followed by the % when rolling 2D6

2 = 2.78%    or  2+   = 100%

3 = 5.56%    or  3+   = 92.23%

4 = 8.33%    or  4+   = 91.67%

5 = 11.11%  or  5+   = 83.34%

6 = 13.89%  or  6+   = 72.23%

7 = 16.67%  or  7+   = 58.34%

8 = 13.89%  or  8+   = 41.67%

9 = 11.11%  or  9+   = 27.78%

10 = 8.33%  or  10+ = 16.67%

11 = 5.56%  or  11+ = 8.34%

12 = 2.78%

The # followed by the % when rolling 3D6

3 = .46%         or  3+   = 100%

4 = 1.39%       or  4+   = 99.74%

5 = 2.78%       or  5+   = 98.35%

6 = 4.63%       or  6+   = 95.57%

7 = 6.94%       or  7+   = 90.94%

8 = 9.72%       or  8+   = 84%

9 = 11.57%     or  9+   = 74.28%

10 = 12.50%   or  10+ = 62.71%

11 = 12.50%   or  11+ = 50.21%

12 = 11.57%   or  12+ = 37.71%

13 = 9.72%     or  13+ = 26.14%

14 = 6.94%     or  14+ = 16.42%

15 = 4.63%     or  15+ = 9.48%

16 = 2.78%     or  16+ = 4.85%

17 = 1.39%     or  17+ = 1.85%

18 = .46%

Common Mat vs. Def

Mat 6 vs. Def 10 = 91.7% with 13.9% critical chance, boosted 99.5% with 44% critical chance
Mat 6 vs. Def 12 = 72.2% with 11.1% critical chance, boosted 95.4% with 39.8% critical chance
Mat 6 vs. Def 14 = 41.7% with 8.3% critical chance, boosted 83.8% with 33.8% critical chance
Mat 6 vs. Def 16 = 16.7% with 5.6% critical chance, boosted 62.5% with 26.4% critical chance

Mat 7 vs. Def 10 = 97.2% with 13.9% critical chance, boosted 99.5% with 44% critical chance
Mat 7 vs. Def 12 = 83.3% with 11.1% critical chance, boosted 98.1% with 42.6% critical chance
Mat 7 vs. Def 14 = 58.3% with 8.3% critical chance, boosted 90.7% with 38% critical chance
Mat 7 vs. Def 16 = 27.8% with 5.6% critical chance, boosted 74.1% with 29.6% critical chance


END OF NUMBERS


Understanding your army and what will hit what.

First thing I'd like to bring up is do no be overwhelmed by the numbers. There is definitely a lot to digest if you want to balance the game and everything as a whole. Luckily your not designing and balancing the game.
Lets tackle this by a simple process.

1. Look at the common Mat/Rat of your models. Typically you'll find a theme. Most armies have a low Mat for non elite troops 5/6 range. Elite troops are in the Mat 7/8 range.
2. Look at the common Def of the armies you fight against. If you play in a large meta this can be harder, but typically you can find a trend inside of opposing factions. Warcaster/warlocks have common trends in their Def. The backfield casters with high amount of support spells are Def 14, mid line casters that have a hybrid spell lists are in the Def 15/16 range, aggressive/assassin casters are Def 16/17.
3. Identify what your non elite troops can hit reliably (in this case I am referring to 50% or higher). Some factions can buff MAT/RAT. Factions with this available (Ex. Trolls - Felcaller / Cygnar - Rangers / Menoth - Choir) can turn non elite into elite troops.
4. Now you need to identify how your faction hits high defense targets. The typical methods are Mat/rat buffs, elite troops, lots of boostable models and aoe attacks.
5. Make sure lists you build can handle high defense targets. If your building 2 lists for a steamroller, make sure one of them can reliably hit Def 16 or higher.

Boosts! When to do it and when not too.

Being able to boost attacks is amazing. You can reliably hit Def 16 with a Mat 6 model if you can boost it. Always boost to get your attack if you fall below 50% chance to hit. The exception is if your trying for a Hail Mary and you can't mathematically kill the model unless you can take more attacks.

Whenever you need that 7+ on dice to hit I would also boost the too hit in a charge scenario. This is because I've committed either a fury/focus or gained a free charge. You don't want the charge to go to waste and the chance too miss is high for my taste. When talking non charge attacks this really comes down too how many times you need to hit the model to kill it? Will crippling do? 

Boosting for damage is also a commonly debated topic. Though this is off topic of the subject matter, but I'll cover it quickly since it can be directly affected by how hard it is too hit. I'll boost anything that is -4 on dice rolls, most of the time on -3 to my dice rolls and almost never on my -2 to dice rolls. This is all contingent on my too hit roll. If I have to boost my to hit roll then I'll boost all damage rolls vs. the target unless their is 0 or + modifier to the damage roll. I'll even boost that roll if my too hit roll is below 60%.

The biggest no nos when boosting.

1. Boosting to hit a model needing 5+ to hit. The exception here is if you hit the model it's a game ender or their is a on hit affect like enliven or poltergeist where you'll only get one attack so you might as well.
2. Boosting damage rolls when you need a 6+ to hit and your at 0 or + on the damage roll.
3. Boosting a 4+ or 5+ to hit because you've missed your last attack.
4. Boosting damage roll on a model when you have 2 more focus/fury available and you need to boost to hit. The exception to this rule is if you are -5 or more on damage.

Hardest to hit targets and solid ways to counter them. - Going to go over the hardest culprits of high Defense jamming and solid counters.

Kayazy Assassins/Nyss Hunters - Can be very hard to kill. The best response I've had to these models is aoe attacks or incredibly high Mat troops. Usually above and beyond "elite troops." Trolls and Menoth both offer aoe attacks and high MAT models so if your list needs Kayazy to jam your opponent take your other list vs. them. In my personal experience Cygnar seems to suffer the most vs Kayazy. Minuteman and Avenger warjacks that aren't out yet will be great answers. Certain casters can offer a ranged threat too them with Caine2 and dead eyed gun mages.

Iron Flesh - This is a spell ripe for upkeep removal. Purification casters, Eyriss2 and any other dispel affects that can reliably hit high defense is the best solution. Trying to win the fight by trying to hit them can prove to be difficult. Aoe attacks are the next best thing, though only effective if you know the target will be low armor.

High Defense Warlock/Warcasters - Boostable attacks are the most reliable method that every army has availability too. One thing about Warcaster/Warlocks is you should use all methods. As players we can get deterred when attacking these models since they seem out of reach and it's true sometimes it's better to attack something you can kill to help win the scenario or protect your caster from attacks. Take these considerations in to your decision to attack them, but never let the odds stop you from throwing the dice.

Conclusion:

Hope this helped with your list construction and help with your decision of "should I boost?" and good luck on the battlefield!